Industrial Cluster: Multiple Factors Restrict Each Other; Zheng Mian Rebounds With The External Market

Zheng Mian continued to rebound on Tuesday, closing at 17350 yuan/ton, recording a daily increase of 1.28%. The US Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release the monthly supply and demand report at 0:00 Beijing time on Wednesday. The market is expected to report that the US cotton output may be further reduced. The ICE cotton season continues to rise, and Zheng Mian is boosted by the external market. In the domestic market, we continued to pay attention to the sale of stocks, downstream demand and the purchase price of new cotton.

Many domestic factors restrict each other. New Lake Futures said that in the short term, the short position is mainly due to the continued pressure on the policy side. In terms of dumping and storage: after increasing the daily listing volume of 12000 tons to 20000 tons from September 4, the China Cotton Association said in the article on September 7 that it learned from relevant departments that during the purchase of new cotton, the central reserve cotton will continue to be sold according to the situation to further stabilize the domestic cotton market and ensure the orderly purchase of new cotton. In addition, although the downstream has improved seasonally on a month on month basis, the growth of domestic and foreign sales orders is still not as good as that of the same period in previous years. Most downstream enterprises have negative profits, and most of them believe that the peak season of this year is not prosperous or a foregone conclusion. In terms of bulls, under the premise of overcapacity of ginning plants and high probability of year-on-year production reduction of new cotton, the probability of rush harvest still exists and cannot be verified. In addition, the recent price of hand picked cotton in Xinjiang is high, ranging from 8.5-9.8 yuan/kg, which further stimulates and strengthens the market's expectation of high opening and closing prices.

As for the evolution of the market logic, Xinhu Futures said that in the short term, the transaction rate was less than 100% for the first time since the sale of reserve cotton this year, which was bad for the market, but the good rate of American cotton was further reduced and the USDA supply and demand report in September was released soon. The market expectation was too much, and the market was in wide swing. Guoxin Futures said that the sales of reserve cotton will continue to the listing of new cotton, and import quotas will also be issued in place. The short-term cotton price was under pressure, but 17000 yuan/ton recovered. The rebound is mainly guided by the strong external disk. In operation, short-term trading is recommended.