National Textile Survey, Before The Spring Festival Market Can Be Stable?

"Gold nine silver ten" is a cyclical peak season of cotton textile market, and the recent cotton textile market has obviously recovered. In order to fully understand the current operation of the cotton textile market in various parts of the country and the enterprise's forecast for the future market, China Cotton Textile Industry Association timely tracks the operation through communicating information with local cotton textile and upstream and downstream enterprises. The relevant contents are summarized as follows:

Raw material Market

Xinjiang cotton: cotton prices have been stable in recent years, and the cotton prices in southern Xinjiang are higher than those in Northern Xinjiang, about 15100-15500 yuan / ton. The quality of cotton is poor in the new year, and it is expected that the quality of gauze may decline after a large number of use. For the future market, enterprises believe that the short-term double 11 orders are basically over. Due to the serious epidemic situation in foreign countries, the demand will not increase too much, and the cotton price will fall back.

Jiangxi viscose: at present, the mainstream viscose price is between 10000 and 11000, and orders have been increasing since September, with a sharp decline in inventory, tight shipment, and a 100% startup rate, with basically flat profits and losses. Downstream home textile and clothing market demand recovery is obvious. Enterprises are cautious and optimistic about the late market, believing that the viscose price is likely to rise, because the current price is basically in break even, which is not normal. On the downstream home textile, clothing market in the short term, long-term continuity is not clear.

Jiangsu polyester staple fiber: due to the epidemic situation and the increase of export orders, the price of polyester staple fiber is about 6000 yuan / ton, the inventory is reasonable, the startup rate is 100%, and there is profit at present. The demand of downstream cotton spinning enterprises increased. It is expected that the current price will remain until the Spring Festival, and then there will be a retreat. The order and inventory will basically maintain the current status.

Yarn Market

Jiangsu vortex spinning yarn: the market is good from September to October, and it is expected that orders will start to decrease after double 11 and double 11, and the market will become light. Recently, the price of viscose and polyester has risen sharply, and the yarn price has also risen, which is generally accepted by downstream customers. At present, the overall startup rate of downstream is high. Not optimistic about the future market.

Shandong cluster pure cotton low count yarn: the start-up rate is more than 95%, the market recovery momentum is good, the cotton yarn price has risen rapidly in the previous period, there is a callback trend in the near future, there are some difficulties in purchasing. Recently, due to the influence of foreign epidemic situation, downstream enterprises are full of orders, so it is difficult to judge the stability in the later stage. It should be in a stable growth stage before the Spring Festival.

Jiangsu high count yarn: the order began to recover gradually from the late July, started at full load, and reached a high level in mid October, with tight delivery time. Enterprises believe that the rise of raw materials is the normal return of prices, yarn prices have also rebounded to normal prices, the profit level has recovered, but less than the same period in previous years. The downstream market is relatively optimistic. As the foreign epidemic situation is out of control, it is worried that the supply of imported raw materials and the continuity of foreign high count yarn orders will be affected, and the market forecast is not clear.

Shandong differential yarn: Recently, the price of main products has increased by 2000 yuan per ton, and the orders are arranged to the end of the year. Compared with the first half of the year, the inventory is reduced, and the startup rate is 100%. In order to develop the domestic market, the product price is adjusted, and the profit is reduced. It is predicted that due to the influence of cold winter, the orders in the downstream heat preservation market may increase.

Peixian viscose yarn: the market price of viscose yarn in Peixian county increased for a period of time in the early stage, and then tended to be stable. The orders of enterprises were sufficient, the inventory was small, and the start-up rate was close to 100%. Most of the enterprises turned losses into profits, downstream purchasing was active, and the bargaining power was becoming stronger, and it was transferred to the seller's market. It is expected that the price will be stable for a period of time, the orders will be sufficient, the inventory will not increase, and the labor force will be tight, and most enterprises will have profits. As the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream is expected to actively purchase. After several years of downturn, the core spun yarn suddenly broke out this year, which indirectly caused the shortage of viscose yarn in the market.

Henan pure cotton yarn: at present, cotton textile enterprises have no or low stock of yarn, and the price is firm. Orders to November, mainly domestic demand. Early inventory cotton price on the current order profit, the new order price will be adjusted according to the current cotton price. It is estimated that if there is no big market fluctuation, the production situation before the Spring Festival is optimistic, the increment of new orders will slow down, the cotton mill will not allow the price temporarily, and the cotton price will fluctuate greatly, and the profit in the later period will be affected.

Jiangsu color spinning: affected by overseas epidemic situation, order backflow and double 11, the current orders are good, mainly domestic orders, relatively few foreign orders, the startup rate is 100%, and the orders can be extended to the end of the year. The price of products increased by more than 2000 yuan / ton, with low profit or no profit, no inventory, and the price of end products increased slightly. It is difficult to predict the future market and there are many uncertain factors. It is expected that the order and price will go down in the later stage, and the spinning order is likely to be enlarged infinitely.

Fujian non cotton yarn: at present, the price is stable and rising, the order is abundant, the inventory is reduced or basically no inventory, the starting rate is higher, the profit is better, and the downstream home textile is weaker than the yarn. In October, the yarn price rose from 1000 yuan to 2000 yuan, and there were more orders from the mills, which were basically inventory on the same day, and the cash flow profit was relatively high. After October 20, downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreased sharply, and new orders were relatively small. It is expected that the profits of the mills will gradually return to the normal range. The overall stability is weak. In the future, prices will stabilize, and the range of rise and fall will not be large. The price of agricultural products is relatively high, driving the price of lint stable.

Xinjiang pure cotton yarn: affected by the domestic double 11 and foreign Christmas, some orders temporarily returned to China, and the current market situation is generally good; at present, the orders are sufficient, the gross profit rate is relatively high, and some varieties are in a state of short supply. Since the third quarter, it has been profitable, and the product inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected that the overall market will improve steadily before the Spring Festival, and the product inventory will remain at a low level. In the third quarter, it will not be affected by the situation in the fourth quarter. At present, the cotton price in Xinjiang is relatively high, and there is a further downward trend, and the uncertainty is large.

Hubei cotton yarn: at present, the order has been increased to more than one month, and the operating rate is 90%. It was originally looking for orders, but now it's customers rushing to order, but it only lasts for 20 days after the festival. Now the speed of placing orders is obviously worse. Due to the financial pressure before the festival, the raw materials were carefully stocked, and there was no profit in purchasing raw materials and yarn supply at current price. Only the operating rate was guaranteed, and the gross profit rate was not. It is expected that the market will be booming around the Spring Festival, and the gross profit rate should be better than now.

Fabric Market

Jiangsu grey cloth: the price rises, but the increase is less than that of raw materials, and the profit space is very limited. Since September, the orders are relatively sufficient and stable in the near future. The startup rate is generally between 95% and 100%, and some of them are 90%. The inventory is small and has begun to increase slightly in the near future. Double 11 and Christmas orders close to the end of the recent market downturn. For the future market can continue, said not optimistic.

Guangdong denim: the rise of cotton yarn price leads to the increase of grey fabric by 0.5-1 yuan / M; after one month of order, yarn and product inventory have one month turnover, and the startup rate is more than 95%. The market showed a warming trend, the enterprise confidence increased, which was lower than the external propaganda, and the profit slightly increased compared with March to April. We are cautious about the market recovery. First, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is grim; second, the problem of "cotton in Xinjiang"; third, the domestic market needs to be cultivated. In the Spring Festival, orders and raw material prices are expected to remain moderate before the Spring Festival.

The price of local fabric is stable. Orders from Europe and the United States did not improve due to the epidemic situation, while orders from Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and China increased significantly. Compared with the same period last year, the profit margin decreased by about 20%. Orders are scheduled until the end of November. Because the production is arranged according to the order, the inventory is less. At present, there are many uncertain factors, customers place orders carefully, and subsequent orders are relatively weak. Recently, the market inquiry has decreased, and the "golden nine silver ten" is coming to an end, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Lanxi grey fabric: yarn price is rising, fabric price rise conduction is not smooth; order 15 days or so. At present, the inventory began to increase to about 1 month, starting full load. If there is no ready yarn in the early stage, the profit in the past month is not up but down, and the consumption of fabric in the downstream is not as good as that publicized by the outside world. The domestic double 11 and foreign holiday stock up is coming to an end. From the end of this month, the market has shown a downward trend, which may recover in the later period. However, the end of the year is a period of relatively weak seasonality, so it will not be too optimistic. The market will start again after January next year.

Guangdong knitwear: after the national day, there was a wave of short-term market, yarn supply exceeded demand, affected by factors such as the rebound of the epidemic situation, production and sales weakened, inquiry reduced, and profits declined. Downstream distribution companies slow down, inventory began to rise, prices tend to stabilize, although some factories offer firm, but the actual number of transactions is rare. It is predicted that with Zheng cotton futures callback market tends to be rational purchasing, some weaving mills hold a wait-and-see attitude.